The 澳博官方网站app 研究所 today released new research indicating that three mortgage payments of post-closing liquidity was the key to homeowners preventing mortgage default across all 收入水平s, suggesting that liquidity is a more useful predictor of mortgage default than home equity, 收入水平, 以及支付负担——特别是对于结算时流动性有限的借款人.

与传统观念相反，首付越大, 从而降低贷款价值比, 降低违约率, a program allowing homeowners to maintain a higher level of liquidity by providing a slightly smaller down payment at origination and keeping the residual cash in a reserve account, 在经济困难的情况下使用, 会降低违约率吗.

Borrowers with less than one mortgage payment equivalent (MPE) of post-closing liquidity had a three-year default rate (1.8 percent) that was more than five times higher than borrowers with between three and four MPEs of post-closing liquidity (0.3%). 进一步, default rates for borrowers with 2 percentage points less in equity at origination but the equivalent of three to four MPEs in cash reserves had default rates that were an average of 1.比流动性差的借款人的违约率低4个百分点.

“Understanding the principal factors associated with mortgage default is critically important to developing solutions that help Americans avoid default and stay in their homes,” Diana Farrell，澳博官方网站app研究所总裁兼首席执行官. “We hope this analysis is valuable in helping mortgage lenders and servicers develop policies and programs that could prevent defaults in the future, while also helping more people access mortgages and have the opportunity to own a home.”

这份新报告， Trading Equity for Liquidity: Bank Data on the Relationship between Liquidity and Mortgage Default, analyzed a sample of de-identified 追逐 customers who had both a 追逐 mortgage and 追逐 deposit account, observing borrowers’ checking and savings account balances to determine liquidity shortly after closing and over the life of the mortgage. The research then examined how default rates differed for borrowers with various levels of liquidity.

报告的主要发现包括:

Borrowers with little liquidity defaulted at considerably higher rates than those with greater liquidity regardless of their home equity, 收入水平, 或每月按揭付款负担. Therefore, trading equity for more liquidity at origination may 降低违约率.

• Borrowers with less than one MPE of liquidity just after closing defaulted at rates that were five times higher than borrowers with three to four MPEs of liquidity.
• 缺乏流动性的借款人在违约中所占的比例高得不成比例. Homeowners with less than one MPE of post-closing liquidity made up 20 percent of our sample but accounted for 54 percent of defaults.
• Default rates for borrowers with a 2 percentage point higher LTV (less equity) but three-to-four MPEs in cash reserves (more liquidity) at origination had three-year default rates that were an average of 1.比流动性差的借款人的违约率低4个百分点.

Underwriting standards that rely on meeting a debt-to-income (DTI) threshold at origination may not be the most effective method for reducing mortgage default, as total DTI measured at origination does not account for future income volatility or measure a household’s ability to withstand that volatility.

• 对于那些违约的房主, default was preceded by a drop in income regardless of whether their total DTI at origination was above or below the 43 percent ability-to-repay threshold of the Qualified Mortgage rule.
• Across all levels of total DTI at origination, half of homeowners who defaulted had fewer than 1.4 MPEs的流动性, 没有违约的中位数房主比违约的房主拥有更多的流动性.

增加借款人流动性的抵押贷款修改降低了违约率, whereas modifications that increased borrower equity but left them underwater did not impact default rates.

• A ten percent payment reduction (increase in liquidity) reduced default rates by 22 percent.
• Modifications that relied on principal reduction (an increase in equity) had no material impact on default rates for borrowers who remained underwater.
• A financially distressed homeowner could use an emergency mortgage reserve account to provide themselves with a temporary payment reduction in the same way a mortgage modification would, 通过增加流动性. 由三到四个MPEs的流动性提供资金, an emergency mortgage reserve account could provide a distressed homeowner with a 25 to 33 percent payment reduction for one year and help them avoid default.